Approximately 21 days prior, projections for “The Marvels” suggested a domestic box office debut of $75 to $80 million. This figure was considered modest for a film within the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Currently, the predictions for the superhero film led by a cast of women have been adjusted to a more conservative $60 to $65 million, potentially marking a historic low for the Marvel Studios managed by Kevin Feige, especially when factoring in inflation. The Quorum, a forecasting service, even anticipates an opening below $60 million.
This 33rd feature in the franchise serves as a follow-up to the 2019 release “Captain Marvel,” headlined by Brie Larson, which garnered $153.4 million upon its North American release and collected an impressive $1.13 billion globally, without adjusting for inflation. Its success was partly attributed to the anticipation built from its introduction in the post-credit sequence of “Avengers: Infinity War” in 2018, and Larson’s character’s involvement in “Avengers: Endgame.”
Despite past success, the promotional efforts for “The Marvels” have been hindered by an actors’ strike, preventing the cast from engaging in publicity events. Nonetheless, last week’s potential settlement prompted Marvel and Disney to consider featuring Larson and fellow actors at the film’s Sphere premiere in Las Vegas, sources report.
“The Marvels” faces another hurdle: a growing disinterest in superhero films, as evidenced by the disappointing $55 million domestic opening of DC’s “The Flash” this summer, a film that Warner Bros. executives initially hailed. The film eventually capped at $270.6 million domestically. In contrast, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” also from Marvel but directed by James Gunn, who now oversees DC, enjoyed a $106 million domestic opening and nearly $846 million in worldwide earnings.
As “The Marvels” approaches its release, interest seems to wane, reflected in advance ticket sales comparable to “The Flash,” an alarming sign for the studios involved. In response, Marvel and Disney modified their marketing strategy, releasing a new trailer just before the premiere, highlighting the film’s Avengers connections and revealing the inclusion of Tessa Thompson’s popular character Valkyrie.
“The Marvels” features Larson alongside Iman Vellani, the standout from the Disney+ series “Ms. Marvel,” and Teyonah Parris portraying Monica Rambeau, previously introduced in “WandaVision,” which was penned in part by “The Marvels” screenwriter Megan McDonnell.
The film is notable for its trio of female leads and for being directed by Nia DaCosta, who is both the first Black woman to direct a Marvel Studios film and the youngest to do so at 34 years old on November 8. Marvel has a history of supporting directors with independent film backgrounds, such as Ryan Coogler, Taika Waititi, and Chloé Zhao.
Historically, “The Incredible Hulk” from 2008 has the lowest domestic opening for an MCU film at $55.4 million, not adjusted for inflation, a time when Marvel collaborated with Universal and was not under Disney’s umbrella. “Ant-Man,” which opened to $57.2 million in 2015, records the next lowest.
For its international debut, “The Marvels” is projected to rake in $60 million, eyeing a worldwide launch of $140 million, a stark contrast to “Captain Marvel’s” near $190 million global opening.
